RFascenelli_Assignment5

.xlsx

School

American Military University *

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Course

305

Subject

Statistics

Date

May 7, 2024

Type

xlsx

Pages

9

Uploaded by rfascenelli on coursehero.com

Historical Quarterly data Red Snapper Take in tons 2015 - 2018 and Forecast for t Year Quarter 1 2015 1 4.50 2 2 6.90 3 3 3.20 4 4 1.60 5 2016 1 5.50 6 2 7.80 7 3 4.10 8 4 1.80 9 2017 1 6.40 10 2 9.20 11 3 4.80 12 4 2.20 13 2018 1 7.30 14 2 8.60 15 3 5.20 16 4 2.30 17 2019 1 18 2 19 3 20 4 Task 1 with markers, by year and quarter, and with an appropriate title. Start by highlighting the column headings and then all data down creating this chart given in the "Excel Time Series Part 1 of 3" in th Assignment Week 5: You have been asked to analyze the trends in Red Snapper the last four years is recorded in the table below. There are 4 Tasks you will ne Tons (x 100) Y t Create a Time series visualization of the historical take of Red Snap 10.00 Chart Title
Information Next you need a Moving Average of 4 months in Column G. This procedure i at approximately the 11 minute point in the video. Column H has been compl Stamp 12:30. This step has been completed for you, however it will help you to understand Refer to the Lesson Video titled "Excel - Time Series Forecasting - Parts 2 of 3 Information This step has been completed for you, however it will help you to understand Quarter 1 1.21 2 1.58 3 0.84 4 0.40 Refer to the Lesson Video titled "Excel - Time Series Forecasting - Task 2 In this step, we need to extract the seasonality (S t ) in the data. It h below, however please view and follow the video instructions to s have all been inserted for you by quarter in the table above. Final column K S t In this Task, you will be creating a Trend component in Column L. will need to Create a regression analysis using the "Deseasonalize (time period in Column C) as our X-variable . Make sure you pick u rows (17 - 20). Use Data -> Data Analysis -> Regression . Follow the complete this part of the analysis. When asked where to insert the receive from the regression analysis will be used in Task 2 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2015 2016 2017 2018 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 Tons (x 100) Yt CMA
SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.91505 R Square 0.83731 Adjusted R Squar 0.82569 Standard Error 0.33521 Observations 16 ANOVA df SS MS F Regression 1 8.096348274 8.096348274 72.0518657443477 Residual 14 1.5731567068 0.112368336 Total 15 9.6695049808 Coefficient Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 3.72513 0.1757876345 21.19107585 4.9020228107522E-12 t 0.15431 0.0181795244 8.488337042 6.8252358300456E-07 Task 3 Tasks 4 & 5 Now that our Regression Analysis has given us our two constants, Component T t (in Column L) You need to create an Excel formula variable constant*t). You can now complete Column L for Rows 6 You are now ready to complete the "Forecast Column" (Column M the Forecast period for 2019 (Rows 22 - 25). The Forecast column i (column L) by the Seasonal Trend (column J). Finally, in the space below, Create a final Line Chart Plot of the for (2015 - 2019). Add a trend line to this Line Chart Plot. 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
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